Awful Shots: An Easy Path to Lower Golf Scores
Learn how tracking and reducing awful shots can be an easy path to lower golf scores using strokes gained analysis.
In his research paper “Assessing Golfer Performance Using Golfmetrics,” Mark Broadie (the creator of strokes gained) identified a powerful insight: strokes gained analysis can pinpoint both your best and worst shots in every round.
For most amateur golfers, eliminating a handful of terrible shots each round has more impact than incremental improvements across all shots. Understanding and tracking awful shots gives you a clear, actionable path to lower scores.
What Qualifies as an Awful Shot?
Using strokes gained (which Broadie originally called “shot value”), an awful shot loses more than 0.8 strokes compared to baseline expectations. Conversely, a great shot gains more than 0.8 strokes.
These thresholds aren’t arbitrary. A shot losing 0.8+ strokes represents a significant deviation from expected performance—the kind of mistake that creates bogeys, doubles, and blowup holes.
Awful shots typically come from two sources:
- Execution failures: Chunks, shanks, topped shots, and major mishits
- Strategic errors: Attempting low-probability shots when safer options exist
Both are correctable. Execution improves with practice; strategy improves with better decision-making and course management.
Why Awful Shots Matter More Than You Think
Broadie’s research revealed that “an overlooked golf performance measure is consistency, and consistent golfers have few very poor shots and few blowup holes.”
Consider this: for most amateur golfers, a relatively small number of awful shots accounts for a disproportionate share of strokes lost. A single skulled chip into a bunker (costing -1.2 strokes) or a drive into out-of-bounds (costing -2.0+ strokes) can wipe out several good shots.
The math favors consistency. Eliminating your three worst shots of the round often saves more strokes than marginal improvement across your other 75-85 shots.
Awful Shot Benchmarks by Handicap Level
Mark Broadie analyzed the relationship between total score and expected awful shots, producing this formula:
Awful Shots = 0.24 Ă— Score - 17.1
For a round of 80 strokes, the benchmark is 2.1 awful shots (0.24 Ă— 80 - 17.1 = 2.1).
Here’s how the benchmarks scale across different scoring levels:
| Score | Expected Awful Shots |
|---|---|
| 72 | 0.2 |
| 75 | 0.9 |
| 80 | 2.1 |
| 85 | 3.2 |
| 90 | 4.5 |
| 95 | 5.7 |
| 100 | 6.9 |
A scratch golfer playing to par should have virtually no awful shots. An 18-handicapper shooting 90 can expect 4-5 awful shots per round. If you’re having 7+ awful shots while shooting 90, you’ve found a major opportunity for improvement.
How to Track and Reduce Your Awful Shots
Step 1: Identify your awful shot patterns
When you enter a round in golfity, we calculate your awful shots automatically and compare them to the benchmark for your score. Track several rounds to identify patterns:
- Which clubs produce the most awful shots?
- What situations trigger them (pressure holes, trouble in view, specific lies)?
- Are they execution errors or strategic mistakes?
Step 2: Address execution errors
If your awful shots come from specific swing faults—topped hybrids, chunked wedges, or snap hooks—targeted practice can eliminate them. Work with a teaching professional to identify and fix the mechanical issues causing your worst misses.
Step 3: Improve course strategy
Many awful shots result from poor decisions rather than poor swings. Consider:
- Playing to the fat side of greens rather than firing at tucked pins
- Choosing higher-lofted clubs from trouble rather than going for hero shots
- Accepting a bogey when fighting for par risks a double or worse
The strokes gained calculator can help you understand the expected outcomes of different strategic choices, making it easier to identify when aggressive play makes sense versus when caution preserves strokes.
The Fastest Path to Lower Scores
Reducing awful shots is often the quickest way to drop strokes. While swing changes take months to groove and putting improvements come slowly, eliminating one or two terrible shots per round can happen immediately through better awareness and smarter decisions.
Track your awful shots with golfity, compare yourself to the benchmarks, and focus your improvement efforts where they’ll have the biggest impact. Your scorecard will thank you.
